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WMS Market Balances January 2017
18/01/2017

January to November 2016 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to November 2016

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to November 2016 was a deficit of 970 kt which follows a deficit of 551 kt recorded for the whole of 2015. Demand for primary aluminium for January to November 2016 was 53.58 million tonnes 68 kt more than the first eleven months of 2015. Production in January to November 2016 fell by 221 kt compared with 2015. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 27 kt during November and at the end of the month were 2644 kt which equated to 17 daysí demand and compares with 3787 kt at the end of 2015. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 2242.5 kt at the end of November 2016 which was 988 kt below the December 2015 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production fell in January to November 2016 by 0.4 per cent compared with the first eleven months of 2015. Chinese output was estimated at 28982 kt and this currently accounts for 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 0.6 per cent lower than 2015. Chinese net exports were 289 kt in January to November and net exports of unwrought aluminium for the whole of 2015 were 342 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China fell from 3445 in January to November 2015 to 3380 in the first eleven months of 2016.

Production in the EU28 fell by 0.8 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 9.9 per cent. EU28 demand was 409 kt higher than the comparable 2015 total. Global demand fell by 0.1 per cent during January to November compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In November 2016, primary aluminium production was 4948.9 kt and consumption was 5017.0 kt.

Copper market records surplus in January to November 2016

The copper market recorded a surplus of 17 kt in January to November 2016 which follows a surplus of 35 kt in the whole of 2015. Reported stocks fell during November and closed 23.2 kt lower than at the end of December 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to November 2016 was 18.78 million tonnes which was 7.0 per cent higher than in the same period in 2015. Global refined production rose to 21.37 million tonnes up 2.7 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 422 kt) and Spain (up 14 kt).

Global consumption for January to November 2016 was 21.35 million tonnes compared with 20.78 million tonnes for the same months of 2015. Chinese apparent consumption in January to November 2016 rose by 273 kt to 10515 kt compared to the same months of 2015 and represented just over 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 2.1 per cent and demand was 3165 kt, 2.2 per cent above the January to November 2015 total.

In November 2016, refined copper production was 1969.0 kt and consumption was 1931.3 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to November 2016

The lead market was in deficit by 66 kt in January to November 2016 which follows a deficit of 14 kt recorded in the whole of 2015. Total stocks at the end of November were 3.2 kt lower than at the end of 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to November 2016 from both primary and secondary sources was 9886.2 kt which was 5.6 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2015. Global demand was 580 kt higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3940.3 kt of lead in January to November 2016 which was 434 kt above the comparable period in 2015 and represented almost 40 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 24 kt for January to November 2016 compared to the first eleven months of 2015.

In November 2016, refined lead production was 916.7 kt and consumption was 925.5 kt.




Zinc market records deficit in January to November 2016

The zinc market was in deficit by 190 kt during January to November 2016 which compares with a surplus of 100 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 74 kt during the eleven-month period. LME stocks fell by 8.8 kt in November and ended the month 21 kt lower than at the end of 2015. LME stocks represent 44 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 3.4 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 1.2 per cent compared with 2015. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 25 kt in November which brought the year to date figure to 401 kt, 48 kt lower than in January to November 2015.

Global refined production fell by 2.5 per cent and consumption was unchanged compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 447 kt, 2 % above the equivalent total for January to November 2015.

World demand was 4 kt lower than for January to November 2015. Chinese apparent demand was 6137 kt which is over 48 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In November 2016 slab zinc production was 1188.2 kt and consumption 1213.2 kt.

Nickel market records deficit in January to November 2016

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to November 2016 with apparent demand exceeding production by 84.6 kt. In the whole of 2015 the calculated surplus was 73.5 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of November were 74.3 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to November totalled 1648.6 kt and demand was 1733.2 kt.

Mine production during January to November was 1784.8 kt, 166 kt below the comparable 2015 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Chinese smelter/refinery output decreased by 37 kt compared with 2015 and apparent demand was 49 kt higher than in the previous year due to increased imports of Nickel Pig Iron from Indonesia and higher imports of metal from Russia.

World apparent demand was 122 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In November 2016, nickel smelter/refinery production was 154.4 kt and consumption was 156.0 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to November 2016

The tin market recorded a deficit of 35 kt during January to November 2016 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose by 0.3 kt during November and ended the period 4.9 kt lower than December 2015.

Global reported production of refined metal was virtually, compared with January to November 2015 total. Production in Asia was the same as the January to November 2015. Apparent demand in China was 8.5 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to November 2016 was 355 kt which was 5.1 per cent above the comparable period of 2015. Japanese consumption was 24.5 kt which was the same as the comparable total for 2015.

In November 2016, refined production was 30.5 kt and demand was 34.7 kt


Dated 18th January 2017
- ENDS-






The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics January 2017 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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