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WBMS November 2016 Press Release
16/11/2016

CES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to September 2016

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to September 2016 was a deficit of 806 kt which follows a deficit of 550 kt recorded for the whole of 2015. Demand for primary aluminium for January to September 2016 was 43.48 million tonnes 238 kt less than the first nine months of 2015. Production in January to September 2016 fell by 560 kt compared with 2015. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 115 kt during September and at the end of the month were 2699 kt which equated to 17 days demand and compares with 3787 kt at the end of 2015. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 2252 kt at the end of September 2016 which was 980 kt below the December 2015 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production fell in January to September 2016 by 1.3 per cent compared with the first nine months of 2015. Chinese output was estimated at 23439 kt and this currently accounts for 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 1.5 per cent lower than 2015. Chinese net exports were 268 kt in January to September and net exports for the whole of 2015 were 342 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China have fallen from 2819 in January to September 2015 to 2806 in the first nine months of 2016.

Production in the EU28 fell by 0.5 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 9.6 per cent. EU28 demand was 270 kt higher than the comparable 2015 total. Global demand fell by 0.5 per cent during January to September compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In September 2016, primary aluminium production was 4880.1 kt and consumption was 4900.1 kt.

Copper market records surplus in January to September 2016

The copper market recorded a surplus of 124 kt in January to September 2016 which follows a surplus of 302 kt in the whole of 2015. Reported stocks rose fractionally during September and closed 69 kt higher than at the end of December 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to September 2016 was 15.15 million tonnes which was 6.6 per cent higher than in the same period in 2015. Global refined production rose to 17.67 million tonnes up 4.3 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 466 kt) and Chile (up 16 kt).

Global consumption for January to September 2016 was 17.55 million tonnes compared with 16.67 million tonnes for the same months of 2015. Chinese apparent consumption in January to September 2016 rose by 571 kt to 8672 kt compared to the same months of 2015 which represented just over 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 2.9 per cent and demand was 2581 kt, 2.8 per cent above the January to September 2015 total.

In September 2016, refined copper production was 2012.4 kt and consumption was 2001.9 kt.

Lead market records small deficit in January to September 2016

The lead market was in deficit by 15 kt in January to September 2016 which follows a deficit of 14 kt recorded in the whole of 2015. Total stocks at the end of September were 13 kt higher than at the end of 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to September 2016 from both primary and secondary sources was 8034.2 kt which was 5.2 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2015. Global demand was 387 kt higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3181.2 kt of lead in January to September 2016 which was 312 kt above the comparable period in 2015 and represented over 39 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 34.8 kt for January to September 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015.

In September 2016, refined lead production was 893.2 kt and consumption was 874.0 kt.




Zinc market records small surplus in January to September 2016

The zinc market was in surplus by 54 kt during January to September 2016 which compares with a surplus of 100 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 74 kt during the nine month period. LME stocks fell by 12.4 kt in September and ended the month 24 kt lower than at the end of 2015. LME stocks represent 43 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 4.7 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 0.2 per cent compared with 2015. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 25 kt in August but fell in September to 17 kt which brought the year to date figure to 351 kt, 44 kt higher than in January to September 2015.

Global refined production fell by 1.0 per cent and consumption increased by 0.6 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 352 kt, 2.1 per cent below the equivalent total for January to September 2015.

World demand was 64 kt higher than for January to September 2015. Chinese apparent demand was 4966 kt which is just over 48 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In September 2016 slab zinc production was 1274.3 kt and consumption 1195.1 kt.

Nickel market records deficit in January to September 2016

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to September 2016 with apparent demand exceeding production by 76.4 kt. In the whole of 2015 the calculated surplus was 75 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of September were 79.3 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to September totalled 1348 kt and demand was 1424 kt.

Mine production during January to September was 1504.1 kt, 107.9 kt below the comparable 2015 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Chinese smelter/refinery output decreased by 31.9 kt compared with 2015 and apparent demand was 72.2 kt higher than in the previous year due to increased imports of Nickel Pig Iron from Indonesia and higher imports of metal from Russia.

World apparent demand was 125 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In September 2016, nickel smelter/refinery production was 160.3 kt and consumption was 161.8 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to September 2016

The tin market recorded a deficit of 26.6 kt during January to September 2016 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell by 0.3 kt during September and ended the period 3.8 kt lower than December 2015.

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 0.9 kt, compared with January to September 2015. Production in Asia decreased from 209.1 kt in January to September 2015 to 206.7 kt in the comparable period in 2016. Apparent demand in China was 7.3 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to September 2016 was 287.8 kt which was 4 per cent above the comparable period of 2015. Japanese consumption was 20.1 kt which was fractionally above the comparable total for 2015.

In September 2016, refined production was 28.8 kt and demand was 31.9 kt


Dated 16th November 2016
- ENDS-






The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics November 2016 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

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