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WBMS Press Release September 2016
21/09/2016

January to July 2016 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to July 2016

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to July 2016 was a deficit of 513 kt which follows a deficit of 331 kt recorded for the whole of 2015. Demand for primary aluminium for January to July 2016 was 33.76 million tonnes 51 kt less than the first seven months of 2015. Production in January to July 2016 fell by 205 kt compared with 2015. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 175 kt during July and at the end of the month were 2900 kt which equated to 18 days demand and compares with 3787 kt at the end of 2015. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 2432.2 kt at the end of July 2016 which was 800 kt below the December 2015 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production fell in January to July 2016 by 0.6 per cent compared with the first seven months of 2015. Chinese output was estimated at 17976 kt and this currently accounts for over 54 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 1.9 per cent lower than 2015. Chinese net exports were 211 kt in January to July and net exports for the whole of 2015 were 342 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China have fallen from 2302 in January to July 2015 to 2155 in the first seven months of 2016.

Production in the EU28 fell by 0.6 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 9.1 per cent. EU28 demand was 212 kt higher than the comparable 2015 total. Global demand fell by 0.2 per cent during January to July compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In July 2016, primary aluminium production was 4851.6 kt and consumption was 5066.1 kt.

Copper market records deficit in January to July 2016

The copper market recorded a deficit of 151 kt in January to July 2016 which follows a surplus of 344 kt in the whole of 2015. Reported stocks rose during July and closed 37 kt lower than at the end of December 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to July 2016 was 11.7 million tonnes which was 5.9 per cent higher than in the same period in 2015. Global refined production rose to 13.6 million tonnes up 3.6 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 337 kt) and Chile (up 31 kt).

Global consumption for January to July 2016 was 13.72 million tonnes compared with 12.94 million tonnes for the same months of 2015. Chinese apparent consumption in January to July 2016 rose by 521 kt to 6736 kt compared to the same months of 2015 which represented just over 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 2 per cent and demand was 2082 kt, 4.5 per cent above the January to July 2015 total.

In July 2016, refined copper production was 1972.8 kt and consumption was 1891.5 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to July 2016

The lead market was in deficit by 88 kt in January to July 2016 which follows a deficit of 5 kt recorded in the whole of 2015. Total stocks at the end of July were 62 kt higher than at the end of 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to July 2016 from both primary and secondary sources was 6196.0 kt which was 5 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2015. Global demand was 358 kt higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 2459.7 kt of lead in January to July 2016 which was 188.4 kt above the comparable period in 2015 and represented over 39 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 10.4 kt for January to July 2016 compared to the first seven months of 2015.

In July 2016, refined lead production was 921.5 kt and consumption was 934.3 kt.




Zinc market records deficit in January to July 2016

The zinc market was in deficit by 106 kt during January to July 2016 which compares with a surplus of 167 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 5 kt during the seven month period. LME stocks fell by 12 kt in July and ended the month 32 kt lower than at the end of 2015. LME stocks represent 40 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 5.0 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China fell by 0.6 per cent compared with 2015. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal fell to 17 kt in July which brought the year to date figure to 309 kt, 77 kt higher than in January to July 2015.

Global refined production fell by 4.7 per cent and consumption fell by 0.6 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 272 kt, 6 per cent below the equivalent total for January to July 2015.

World demand was 44 kt lower than for January to July 2015. Chinese apparent demand was 3790 kt which is just under 48 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In July 2016 slab zinc production was 1140.0 kt and consumption 1158.4 kt.

Nickel market records deficit in January to July 2016

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to July 2016 with apparent demand exceeding production by 89.5 kt. In the whole of 2015 the calculated surplus was 45.2 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of July were 68.4 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to July totalled 1029 kt and demand was 1119 kt.

Mine production during January to July was 1176.3 kt, 54.8 kt below the comparable 2015 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 8.5 kt compared with 2015 and apparent demand was 8.9 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 110 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In July 2016, nickel smelter/refinery production was 152.4 kt and consumption was 164.1 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to July 2016

The tin market recorded a deficit of 7.3 kt during January to July 2016 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose by 0.3 kt during July and ended the period 0.7 kt higher than December 2015.

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 14.7 kt, compared with January to July 2015. Production in Asia increased from 160.4 kt in January to July 2015 to 173.2 kt in the comparable period in 2016. Apparent demand in China was 10.1 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to July 2016 was 223.0 kt which was 4.1 per cent above the comparable period of 2015. Japanese consumption was 15.1 kt which was 0.8 kt below the comparable total for 2015.

In July 2016, refined production was 29.7 kt and demand was 30.3 kt


Dated 21st September 2016
- ENDS-






The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics September 2016 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

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