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WBMS Press Release December 2015
16/12/2015

January to Oct 2015 METALS BALANCES
Primary aluminium market records deficit in January to October 2015
The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to October 2015 was 279 kt which follows a deficit of 589 kt recorded for the whole of 2014. Demand for primary aluminium for January to October 2015 was 47.94 million tonnes 2963 kt more than the first ten months of 2014. Production in January to October 2015 rose by 3260 kt compared with 2014. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 184 kt during October and at the end of the month were 3961 kt which equated to 27 days demand and compares with 5020 kt at the end of 2014. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 3366 kt at the end of October 2015 which was 1319 kt below the December 2014 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.
Overall, global production rose in January to October 2015 rose by 7.3 per cent compared with the first ten months of 2014. Chinese output was estimated at 26456 kt and this currently accounts for more than 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 15 per cent higher than 2014. Chinese net exports were 47 kt in January to October and net exports for the whole of 2014 were 313 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China have soared from 2418 in January to October 2014 to 3071 in the first ten months of 2015.
Production in the EU28 fell by 2.2 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 2.4 per cent. EU28 demand was 492 kt lower than the comparable 2014 total. Global demand rose by 6.6 per cent during January to October compared with the levels recorded one year previously.
In October 2015, primary aluminium production was 4807.5 kt and consumption was 4852.4 kt.
Copper market records surplus in January to October 2015
The copper market recorded a surplus of 266 kt in January to October 2015 which follows a surplus of 298 kt in the whole of 2014. Reported stocks fell during October and closed 204 kt higher than at the end of December 2014 No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile
World mine production in January to October 2015 was 15.9 million tonnes which was 3.6 per cent higher than in the same period in 2014. Global refined production rose to 19.1 million tonnes up 1.1 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 36 kt) and India (up 35 kt).
Global consumption for January to October 2015 was 18798 kt compared with 18796 kt for the same months of 2014. Chinese apparent consumption in January to October 2015 rose by 26 kt to 9211 kt which represented 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 0.5 per cent and demand was, at 2709 kt, 1.1 per cent below the January to October 2014 total.
In October 2015, refined copper production was 1984.1 kt and consumption was 2006.3 kt.
Lead market records small surplus in January to October 2015
The lead market was in surplus by 8 kt in January to October 2015 which follows a deficit of 35.1 kt recorded in the whole of 2014. Total stocks at the end of October were 138 kt lower than at the end of 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
World refined production during January to October 2015 from both primary and secondary sources was 8270 kt which was 8.3 per cent lower than in the comparable months of 2014. Global demand was 791 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3179 kt of lead in January to October 2015 which was 642 kt below the comparable period in 2014 and represented over 38 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 104 kt.
In October 2015, refined lead production was 823.6 kt and consumption was 839.6 kt.
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Zinc market records surplus in January to October 2015
The zinc market was in surplus by 170 kt during January to October 2015 which compares with a deficit of 209 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 78 kt during the ten month period. LME stocks fell by 26 kt in October and ended the month 128 kt lower than at the end of 2014. LME stocks represent 48 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 1.4 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 9 per cent compared with 2014. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 72.3 kt in October which brought the year to date figure to 379.3 kt, 154 kt lower than January to October 2014.
Global refined production rose by 4.7 per cent and consumption rose by 0.9 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 392.8 kt, 6.7 per cent below the equivalent total for January to October 2014.
World demand was 104 kt higher than the January to October 2014. Chinese apparent demand was 5349 kt which is just over 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
In October 2015 slab zinc production was 1179.0 and consumption 1172.2 kt.
Nickel market records small deficit in January to October 2015
The Nickel market was in deficit during January to October 2015 with apparent demand exceeding production by 45 kt. In the whole of 2014 the calculated surplus was 241.8 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of October were 38.6 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to October totalled 1607.4 kt and demand was 1652.6 kt.
Mine production during January to October was 1579 kt, 114 kt below the comparable 2014 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 7.8 kt compared with 2014 and apparent demand was 2.3 kt lower than in the previous year.
World apparent demand was 208 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes
In October 2015, nickel smelter/refinery production was 164.6 kt and consumption was 184.3 kt.
Tin market records deficit in January to October 2015
The tin market recorded a deficit of 14.3 kt during January to October 2015 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose slightly during October and ended the period 3.2 kt lower than December 2014.
Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was down by 17.6 kt, compared with January to October 2014. Production in Asia declined from 316 kt in January to October 2014 to 257 kt in the comparable period in 2015. Apparent demand in China was 6.2 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.
Global tin demand during January to October 2014 was 307.4 kt which was 5.7 per cent below the comparable period of 2014. Japanese consumption was 23.7 kt which was 0.9 kt above the comparable total for 2014.
In October 2015, refined production was 31.4 kt and demand was 32.4 kt
Dated 16th December 2015
- ENDS-
The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics December 2015 published today.
Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274
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Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.
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