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WMS Press Release November
18/11/2015

January to Sept 2015 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market records deficit in January to September 2015

The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to September 2015 was 370 kt which follows a deficit of 654 kt recorded for the whole of 2014. Demand for primary aluminium for January to September 2015 was 43.24 million tonnes 2757 kt more than the first nine months of 2014. Production in January to September 2015 rose by 2986 kt compared with 2014. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 135 kt during September and at the end of the month were 4145 kt which equated to 28 days demand and compares with 5020 kt at the end of 2014. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 3510 kt at the end of September 2015 which was 935 kt below the December 2014 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January to September 2015 rose by 7.5 per cent compared with the first nine months of 2014. Chinese output was estimated at 23782 kt and this currently accounts for 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 15 per cent higher than 2014. Chinese net exports were 267 kt in January to September and net exports for the whole of 2014 were 313 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China have soared from 2135 in January to September 2014 to 2819 in the first nine months of 2015.

Production in the EU28 fell by 1.8 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 2.7 per cent. EU28 demand was 284 kt lower than the comparable 2014 total. Global demand rose by 6.8 per cent during January to September compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In September 2015, primary aluminium production was 4890.4 kt and consumption was 4939.3 kt.

Copper market records surplus in January to September 2015

The copper market recorded a surplus of 377 kt in January to September 2015 which follows a surplus of 298 kt in the whole of 2014. Reported stocks fell during September to close 120 kt higher than at the end of December 2014 No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to September 2015 was 14.18 million tonnes which was 3.0 per cent higher than in the same period in 2014. Global refined production rose to 17.1 million tonnes up 1.2 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 70 kt) and India (up 36 kt).

Global consumption for January to September 2015 was 16682 kt compared with 16827 kt for the same months of 2014. Chinese apparent consumption in January to September 2015 fell by 67 kt to 8108 kt which represented 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 0.1 per cent and demand was, at 2426 kt, 0.8 per cent below the January to September 2014 total.

In September 2015, refined copper production was 1945.3 kt and consumption was 1862. kt.

Lead market records small surplus in January to September 2015

The lead market was in surplus by 51 kt in January to September 2015 which follows a deficit of 2.4 kt recorded in the whole of 2014. Total stocks at the end of September were 111 kt lower than at the end of 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to September 2015 from both primary and secondary sources was 7428 kt which was 7.6 per cent lower than in the comparable months of 2014. Global demand was 665 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 2860 kt of lead in January to September 2015 which was 504 kt below the comparable period in 2014 and represented almost 39 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 101 kt.

In September 2015, refined lead production was 809.0 kt and consumption was 787.9 kt.




Zinc market records surplus in January to September 2015

The zinc market was in surplus by 137 kt during January to September 2015 which compares with a deficit of 209 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks rose by 23 kt during the nine month period. LME stocks rose by 71 kt in September and ended the month 95 kt lower than at the end of 2014. LME stocks represent 49 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 0.4 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 10.0 per cent compared with 2014. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 41.4 kt in September which brought the year to date figure to 307.0 kt, 202 kt lower than January to September 2014.

Global refined production rose by 5.4 per cent and consumption rose by 1.0 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 356.4 kt, 5.3 per cent below the equivalent total for January to September 2014.

World demand was 98 kt higher than the January to September 2014. Chinese apparent demand was 4762 kt which is just under 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In September 2015 slab zinc production was 1185.4 and consumption 1162.2 kt.

Nickel market records small deficit in January to Septembert 2015

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to September 2015 with apparent demand exceeding production by 39 kt. In the whole of 2014 the calculated surplus was 241.8 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of September were 37.7 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to September totalled 1437 kt and demand was 1476 kt.

Mine production during January to September was 1404 kt, 118 kt below the comparable 2014 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 5.9 kt compared with 2014 and apparent demand was 3.7 kt lower than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 164 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In September 2015, nickel smelter/refinery production was 164.2 kt and consumption was 184.2 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to September 2015

The tin market recorded a deficit of 8.4 kt during January to September 2015 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell slightly during September and ended the period 6.3 kt lower than December 2014.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was down by 14.6 kt, compared with January to September 2014. Production in Asia declined from 230.0 kt in January to September 2014 to 218.5 kt in the comparable period in 2015. Apparent demand in China was 7.4 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to September 2014 was 271.9 kt which was 8.4 per cent below the comparable period of 2014. Japanese consumption was 21.3 kt which was 0.8 kt below the comparable total for 2014.

In September 2015, refined production was 31.0 kt and demand was 30.8 kt


Dated 18th November 2015
- ENDS-


The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics November 2015 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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