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Press Release June 2015
17/06/2015

January to April 2015 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market records deficit in January to April 2015

The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to April 2015 was 283 kt which follows a deficit of 723 kt recorded for the whole of 2014. Demand for primary aluminium for January and April 2015 was 18.98 million tonnes 2593 kt more than the first four months of 2014. Production in January to April 2015 rose by 2630 kt compared with 2014. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 79 kt during April and at the end of the month were 4728 kt which equated to 34 days demand and compares with 5020 kt at the end of 2014. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 4097 kt at the end of April 2015 which was 348 kt below the December 2014 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January to April 2015 rose by 16.4 per cent compared with the first four months of 2014. Chinese output was estimated at 10099 kt and this currently accounts for 54 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 33 per cent higher than 2014. Chinese net exports were 142 kt in January to April and net exports for the whole of 2014 were 313 kt.

Production in the EU28 rose by 3.2 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 3.6 per cent. EU28 demand was 69 kt lower than the comparable 2014 total. Global demand rose by 15.8 per cent during January to April compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In April 2015, primary aluminium production was 4745.7 kt and consumption was 5087.2 kt.

Copper market records surplus in January to April 2015

The copper market recorded a surplus of 159 kt in January to April 2015 which follows a surplus of 237 kt in the whole of 2014. Reported stocks rose by 212 kt over the first four months of 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to April 2015 was 6.11 million tonnes which was 1.5 per cent higher than in the same period in 2014. Global refined production rose to 7.42 million tonnes up 3.8 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 183 kt).

Global consumption for January to April 2015 was 7261 kt compared to 7381 kt for the same months of 2014. Chinese apparent consumption in January to April 2015 fell by 15 kt to 3526 kt which represented 48.6 per cent of global demand. EU28 production rose by 1.7 per cent and demand was, at 1085 kt, 1.5 per cent below the January to April 2014 total.

In April 2015, refined copper production was 1840.1 kt and consumption was 1923.6 kt.

Lead market records small deficit in January to April 2015

The lead market was in deficit by 10.5 kt in January to April 2015 which follows a surplus of 1 kt recorded in the whole of 2014. Total stocks at the end of April were 71.8 kt lower than at the end of 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to April 2015 from both primary and secondary sources was 3273 kt which was 3.2 per cent lower than in the comparable months of 2014. Global demand was 120 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 1287 kt of lead in January to April 2015 which was 71 kt below the comparable period in 2014 and represented just over 39 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has increased by 7.8 kt.

In April 2015, refined lead production was 818.3 kt and consumption was 832.7 kt.




Zinc market records surplus in January to April 2015

The zinc market was in surplus by 297 kt during January to April 2015 which compares with a deficit of 154 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 119 kt during the four month period. LME stocks fell by 42.2 kt in April and ended the month 222 kt lower than at the end of 2014. LME stocks represent 44 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand fell by 0.1 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 14.5 per cent compared with 2014. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 51.2 kt in April which brought the year to date figure to 133 kt, 129.2 kt lower than January to April 2014.

Global refined production rose by 7.7 per cent and consumption fell by 0.5 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 145.5 kt, 12.9 per cent below the equivalent total for January to April 2014.

World demand was 20 kt lower than the January to April 2014. Chinese apparent demand was 1981 kt which is just under 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In April 2015 slab zinc production was 1190.5 and consumption 1132.1 kt.

Nickel market records surplus in January to April 2015

The Nickel market was in surplus during January to April 2015 with production exceeding apparent demand by 39 kt. In the whole of 2014 the calculated surplus was 220.9 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of April were 29 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to April totalled 589 kt and demand was 550 kt.

Mine production during January to April was 719.1 kt, 77.7 kt above the comparable 2014. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 11.8 kt compared with 2014 and apparent demand was 7.8 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 28.5 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In April 2015, nickel smelter/refinery production was 160.3 kt and consumption was 162.8 kt.


Tin market records tiny surplus in January to April 2015

The tin market recorded a surplus of 0.1 kt during January to April 2015 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell fractionally during April and ended the period 2.6 kt lower than December 2014.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was down by 7.9 kt, compared with January to April 2014. Apparent demand in China was 6.9 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to April 2014 was 115.9 kt which was 6.4 per cent below the comparable period of 2014. Japanese consumption was 9.4 kt which was 0.4 kt above the comparable total for 2014.

In April 2015, refined production was 28.0 kt and demand was 28.0 kt


Dated 17th June 2015
- ENDS-


The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics June 2015 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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