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WMS Market Balances October 2014
17/12/2014

January to October 2014 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to October 2014

The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to October 2014 was 542 kt which follows a surplus of 570 kt recorded for the whole of 2013. Demand for primary aluminium in the first ten months of 2014 was 41.43 million tonnes 2212 kt more than the same period in 2013. Production in January to October 2014 rose by 1398 kt compared with the first ten months of 2013. Total reported stocks fell by a further 173 kt during October and at the end of the month were 6564 kt which equated to 50 days demand and compares with 7171 kt at the end of 2013. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 4669 kt at the end of October 2014 which was 909 kt below the December 2013 total. Global producer stocks at the end of October 2014 were 1402 kt which was 233 kt above the previous year’s close. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January to October 2014 rose by 3.5 per cent compared with January to October 2013. Chinese output was estimated at 19633 kt and this currently accounts for 48 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 7.6 per cent higher than 2013. Chinese net exports were 45.0 kt in October and net exports for the year to date were 223.4 kt.

Production in the EU28 fell by 0.26 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 7.5 per cent. EU28 demand was 258 kt higher than the comparable 2013 total. Global demand rose by 5.6 per cent during January to October compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In October 2014, primary aluminium production was 4173.1 kt and consumption was 4174.6 kt.

Copper market records deficit in January to October 2014

The copper market recorded a deficit of 62 kt in January to October 2014 which follows a surplus of 281 kt in the whole of 2013. Reported stocks fell by 191 kt over the ten months. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to October 2014 was 15.27 million tonnes which was 1.13 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013. Global refined production rose to 18.84 million tonnes up 7.1 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 822 kt) more than compensating for the 17.0 kt fall in Chilean output and 6.1 kt decrease in German production.

Global consumption for January to October 2014 was 18905.6 kt compared to 21039 kt for the whole of 2013. Chinese apparent consumption in January to October 2014 rose by 1234 kt to 9165 kt which represented just over 48 per cent of global demand. EU28 production grew by 3.3 per cent and demand was, at 2836 kt, 10.6 per cent above the January to October 2013 total.

In October 2014, refined copper production was 1993.1 kt and consumption was 1930.4 kt.

Lead market records surplus in January to October 2014

The lead market was in surplus by 76.1 kt in January to October 2014 which follows a deficit of 178 kt recorded in the whole of 2013. Total stocks at the end of October were 9.9 kt lower than at the end of 2013. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to October 2014 from both primary and secondary sources was 8586 kt which was 1.7 per cent lower than in the first ten months of 2013. Global demand was 377 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3527 kt of lead in January to October 2014 which was 240 kt below the comparable period in 2013 and represented just over 41 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 61 kt.

In October 2014, refined lead production was 860.8 kt and consumption was 853.4 kt.



Zinc market records deficit in January to October 2014

The zinc market was in deficit by 261 kt during January to October 2014 which compares with a surplus of 94 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 310 kt during the first ten months of the year. LME stocks fell by 52.5 kt in October and ended the month 233 kt lower than at the end of 2013. LME stocks represent 60 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 6.5 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 7.4 per cent compared with 2013. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 25.0 kt in October which brought the year to date figure to 533.6 kt, 45 kt higher than January to October 2013.

Global refined production rose by 1.9 per cent and consumption rose by 5.5 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 410.1 kt, 4.4 per cent above the equivalent total for January to October 2013.

World demand was 590 kt higher than the first ten months of 2013. Chinese apparent demand was 5238 kt which is almost 47 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In October 2014 slab zinc production was 1170.1 and consumption 1167.3 kt.

Nickel market records surplus in January to October 2014

The Nickel market was in surplus during January to October 2014 with production exceeding apparent demand by 148 kt. In the whole of 2013 the calculated surplus was 186.7 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of October were 124 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to October totalled 1593.4 kt and demand was 1445.7 kt.

Mine production during January to October was 1471.7 kt, 542 kt below the comparable 2013 total due largely to the assumed reduction in Indonesian output in response to the export ban. Japanese refinery output decreased by 2.5 kt compared with 2013 and apparent demand was 4.8 kt lower than in 2013.

World apparent demand was 30.7 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In October 2014, nickel smelter production was 167.1 kt and consumption was 145.1 kt.


Tin market records surplus in January to October 2014

The tin market recorded a surplus of 3.1 kt during January to October 2014 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell by 1.7 tonnes during October and ended the period 3.5 kt higher than December 2013.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was up by 18.6 kt, compared with January to October 2013. Apparent demand in China was 11 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to October 2014 was 308 kt which was 4.7 per cent above the comparable period of 2013. Japanese consumption was 23 kt which was 0.7 kt below the comparable total for 2013.

In October 2014, refined production was 29.9 kt and demand was 29.1 kt


Dated 17th December 2014
- ENDS-


The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics December 2014 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274